So year number two of Josh McDaniels tenure as Broncos head coach and we have our second big trade go down.  Year number one brought us the Jay Cutler trade to Chicago and this year brings us the Brandon Marshall trade to Miami.  I’ll give McDaniels this, he doesn’t mess around, if he thinks you are a problem or potential problem, you are gone.  It’s all about the team and if you are not on board with that, it’s time to go.

Let’s break down the trade a bit.  The Broncos get Miami’s second round pick this year and Miami’s 2011 second round pick.  With Miami’s second rounder this year, the Broncos now have No. 11, No. 43 and No. 45 in the first two days of the draft.  Since the Broncos have Whatshisface (Jabar Gaffney), Old Dude (Stokley) and Eddie (Eddie Royal) left on their roster to catch balls for them, it’s imperative that the Broncos find a replacement for Marshall NOW - not next year, but now since the Broncos are handcuffed at the receiver position. 

Of course, will this matter since we have ole neckbeard (Kyle Orton) still slinging the rock?  I mean I give neckbeard props, he does win, but he’s not the kind of QB who is going to bring you back from a deficit or take over late in a game and put a game away.  He’s simply not that kind of QB, so if you look at it that way, we can have all-pro receivers all over the field, but until we get someone who can sling the rock better, it won’t matter. 

What do you say of Marshall?  I’m not sure, one thing I can tell you is this, he is NOT worth this.  “Marshall and the Dolphins reached agreement Wednesday on a four-year, $47.5 million contract extension that includes $24 million in guaranteed money, according to a league source. The deal includes close to $29 million in the first three years of the contract and makes Marshall the highest paid receiver in NFL history.” (see full story here) 

Everyone talks about Marshall’s catches, but in my humble opinion, catches are the most overrated stat in NFL history.  When you average less than 10 yards a catch, it’s easy to catch those little bubble screens and short come backers.  Look at Wes Welker and his catch total over the past 3 years. Sorry, Wes Welker is NOT that good of a wide receiver because he catches so many balls.  Same with Brandon, he’s good, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a top five wide receiver in the league. Top 10? Yes, Brandon Marshall is a top 10 receiver in this league. 

Brandon is also one incident away from being suspended by the league for an entire year.  Now, $24 million in guaranteed money, Southbeach and Brandon Marshall go together like a Chinese firecracker.  I smell explosions already and they seem to be coming from the Miami area.  Marshall, in my opinion (obviously not fact) lacks the breakaway speed needed to be a top flight receiver.  His hands are also suspect since he drops some easy balls and also fumbles quite a bit too. 

Do I sound like a typical fan “oh, he sucks now that he isn’t on my team”??  Sure, maybe, but I’ve always thought that about Brandon.  He has so many positives, but he also has so many negatives that are off the field issues.  He is one incident away from a year long suspension by the NFL.  He has a history of violence against women and not being able to stay away from the “bad influences”.  His cousin and he were the ones that caused the Darrent Williams incident.  He almost cut his hand off while horsing around with his cousin.  He quit on his team at the end of the 2009 season after he reached his personal goals.  He quit on his team in practice because he was mad he didn’t get a big contract at the start of the 2009 training camp.  Should I go on, or do you see the point?  Brandon has a $24 million dollar body and a 10 cent head. 

Will Tony Sparano be able to control him?  Maybe, it’s going to take a very authoritarian coach to deal with Brandon because he is like the spoiled child who needs all the attention in order to stay out of trouble.  Bill Parcells, who is running the show in Miami, does have a great football mind.  Maybe he is right?  Maybe Brandon is worth all the headaches.  That is yet to be seen, at this point, Denver no longer has to worry about Brandon and his issues.  For that, I am grateful.  Every day you wake up as a Bronco fan and hold your breath hoping there wasn’t some issue with Brandon. 

Now we shift our focus to the draft and building a team for the future.  With so many draft picks this year and a deep draft, the Broncos can build a team that can compete now and in the future.  Who will Denver take at #11 now? 

Some say Dez Bryant since we do not have a top-tier wide receiver.  Others disagree, saying Dez is Brandon Marshall (head-case wise) minus the known quantity of him being a good NFL player.  I say the off the field issues with Dez are overblown April talk.  Usually in April, teams start leaking “stories” to try to get players to fall to them, it happens every year.  This year, it’s Dez’s turn to be part of that.  If teams look at his on the field play and talk to his coaches, I’m sure they have a good idea of who Dez the player is. 

Others say Denver might take Florida center Maurkice Pouncey.  This is probably the safest of the picks since Denver doesn’t have a legitimate center on their team anymore.  Supposedly Pouncey is a sure-fire NFL ready center.  This draft is deep with O-linemen, so maybe we take a skill position player and get our O-line later in the draft.  Who knows, McDaniels and the rest of the Broncos are keeping a tight lip and nothing is going to slip.

Let’s hope 2011 doesn’t bring the drama the 2009 and the 2010 off-season has.  I just want a nice quiet off-season for once as a Bronco fan.  Is that too wrong to ask for?  Let’s go Broncos!!!

So as I sit down to write my diatribe on the state of the Denver Broncos, I want to apologize my dear reader (yeah, I said reader, in the singular sense…but I do appreciate that one reader) about not writing last week.  I guess I’m rather hit or miss on my motivation.  Blame it on my upbringing, blame it on my lack of work ethic, blame it on my upbringing, but whatever you do, do NOT blame it on the rain.  I want to apologize to the web master, sorry Jessica, I’m worthless, but hey, at least our Broncos are not worthless. 

After I left them for dead after their loss to the Redskins, the Broncos have decided to start playing some football again.  6-0, 0-4 and 2-0.  I guess that is a sign of an inexperienced team - rather than fold after losing four in a row, the Broncos took it on themselves to turn it around.  In my eyes, that shows class, character and a desire to get better.  There was a players only meeting headed by Brian Dawkins, and after that meeting, Denver decided to not give up and push through the adversity.

Next up in Week 14, the humble heroes in orange and blue will visit the great and mighty Peyton Manning in Lucas Oil Stadium.  Now, the Broncos do not have a great history against the Colts.  Let’s reflect and cry a little:

2002- Colts 23 Broncos 20

2003- Colts 17 Broncos 31

2004 (playoff) – Colts 41 Broncos 10

2005 (Peyton did NOT play) – Colts 14 Broncos 33

2006 – Colts 34 Broncos 31

2007 – Colts 38 Broncos 20

Looking back at this, when it counted, Peyton Manning is the Broncos daddy.  If Peyton says jump, the Broncos say how high.  But wait, John! Broncos won 31 – 17 in 2003, no???  Sure, I’ll give that one a legit W - we thoroughly kicked their posterior, but the Colts made up for that by destroying us in the playoff game later on that year.  We throw 2005 out; Jim Sorgi doesn’t count.  2006 was finally a close game but we still lost and then 2007 was destruction. 

Now we turn to 2009 and the Broncos are coming to town, are the Denver boys and girls scared?  As a player I doubt they are, but as a fan I’m already accepting my fate.  I’m visiting the prison TV series Oz and taking it like a real man would.  The Colts enter this game 12-0 and fresh off a victory over the once hot Titans.  The Broncos enter this game with a record of 8-4 and winning two games in a row. 

The Broncos are basically the last hope, sans a playoff game, for the 1972 Dolphins.  If the Broncos don’t beat the Colts this weekend, there is little hope, based upon the opponents left, that Indy will lose to any of the teams.  The Colts have and easy schedule and to top it off, if the Colts win this weekend, they are guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

What can the Broncos do to stop the Colts?  Nothing, plain and simple.

Manning the elder is playing at such a high level that Bill Belichick had the right idea - keep the ball away from Peyton, do NOT give him a chance to beat you.  The only thing you can do is to keep the ball away from Manning, but even then, that doesn’t always work out.  That doesn’t mean you don’t want to run the ball though - you have to keep the ball away from Peyton as much as possible.  The more Peyton has the ball, the more he is dangerous.  I view him as the Predator and us as Jesse “The Body” Ventura. 

We are going to be left an empty shell with our chest cavity exposed.  So should you blitz Peyton so disrupt his timing???  Surely, that’s what you do, I mean, it’s only Peyton, he has happy feet, he is going to make a mistake right???  No he won’t, I believe his stats from this year are just ridiculous versus the blitz.  I can’t think of what they are, but let’s just say they are near perfection.   So you can’t hold the ball from him, you can’t blitz him??? What can you do, nothing really, other than pray deeply!  Seriously, nothing you can do, other than just laugh at it and hope he has a bad game. 

The Colts own us, plain and simple, and I don’t see this week being any different.  With the Colts having the motivation to win home-field advantage throughout, you go over every possible scenario and in every scenario you see the Broncos getting destroyed by the Colts. 

I just can’t go against logic, no matter what my heart says.  In my heart, I think the Broncos pull it out, but in my head, I don’t even see that being possible.  Colts are going to win this big, 37  – 18.  So close up the barn doors and prepare for a butt-whipping of epic proportions. 

Until next time……….

It’s gobble gobble day and last week’s predictions gave us another tie.  However the overall lead still stands with Jack Simms at 77-66-1 and the guest predictors at 67-76-1.

Oklahoma (-8) vs Oklahoma State

The Sooners are 6 and 5, but yet they have been favorites each games besides the Texas game.  I guess someone is hoping for the proverbial squirrel to find the nut.   The Sooners at home are tough, and if the Cowboys are playing without Robinson, this game could be interesting.

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick pick OSU

Texas (-21) vs Texas A&M

The Aggies have been Jekyll and Hyde all year long, and this is the perfect time to bring out the Jekyll.   However the longhorns have the national title within their sites and they are not going to let it slip away like last yr.  I do think the game will be closer than the point spread however

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick pick Texas A&M

Baylor vs Texas Tech (-20)

Will Texas Tech be able to overcome the all time high after their thrashing of the once mighty Sooners?   Well lucky for them they have the dead duck Bears coming into town

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick picks Texas Tech

Nebraska (-10) vs Colorado

Playing in Folsom Field can always leave a team some bitter feelings.  However the Cornhuskers look to ride high into Big D next week to take on the Longhorns.

Jack Simms  and Guest Predictor Rick picks Nebraska

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia (Pk)

Here comes the roll of the spoilers, the Mountaineers at home against their rivals the Panthers.   Can Wannstedt actually win something win it matters?  The Panthers have quietly made their way into the BCS picture and now have a very good opportunity to get into the Orange Bowl.

Jack Simms picks Pittsburgh and Guest Predictor Rick picks West Virginia

Kansas vs Missouri  (-3.5)

At the start of the year most thought this game could be for the North title, or at least one of the teams would have had a shot.  Now this game is for pride, and most of all the career of the embattled Mangino.  If there was ever a time to right the wrongs that have been done it would be now in the rivalry game against the Tigers.

Jack Simms picks Kansas and Guest Predictor Rick picks Missouri

Alabama vs Auburn (-10)

Gobble Gobble day leads us to one of the most hated rivalries in all of college football.   If the fans could throw frozen turkeys at each other they probably would.   However in the end the only turkey on the field will be the Tigers.  Look for Alabama to finish things off early as they get ready for the Gators and a chance at a National Title

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick pick Alabama.

Florida St vs Florida (-21)

The Gators have been playing uninspired football all year and in comes their in state rival the Seminoles.  Now, although this rivalry doesn’t compare to some of the others, it will still have the Swamp a rocking.

Jack Simms predicts Florida State and Guest Predictor Rick pick Florida

Illinois vs Cincinnati (-21)

The Bearcats haven’t exactly played lights out over the past few weeks, but with mighty Illini coming into town the ship can be straightened out quickly.   Of course, will the Bearcats over look the Illini as they face the Panthers next week for the Orange Bowl.

Jack Simms picks Illinois and Guest Predictor Rick picks Cincinnati

Arizona (-4) vs Arizona State

The battle of the Sun state brings us two embattled teams one with a terrible season, and the other with the disappointment over the last 2 weeks.   The Wildcats have had back to back heart wrenching losses, and look to get back on track against the sunless Sun Devils

Jack Simms picks Arizona and Guest Predictor Rick picks Arizona State

Notre Dame vs Stanford (-10)

Will this be the last hurrah for the almighty Weis?  Although, he thought he was almighty he wasn’t cut out for the College game.   Next stop for Weis is another stop with a NFL team as an offensive coordinator.   Look for Gerhart to lead the way for the Cardinals over the not so lucky Irish.   Note:  Weis if your AD cancels your recruiting trip it means your FIRED!!!

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick pick Stanford

UCLA vs USC (-13)

The Trojans have had a week off to get over their debacle at home against the Cardinals.   Look for them to get back on track to salvage some sense of decency against their inner city rivals the Bruins.   However it would be funny to see the Trojans lose again.

Jack Simms and Guest Predictor Rick picks USC

As I write this, I realize something, Denver isn’t as good as I thought they were, nor are they as bad as I thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season.  I believe, like most people, I had Denver putting out a losing record, somewhere along the lines of 4-12 or 5-11, nothing like what they are now. 

After last Mondays debacle I really thought Denver was really bad.  I lamented about it on Twitter, I was called a bandwagon fan after my whining.  Eh, no bandwagon fan, but my self-esteem is so low, that my mood depends on a pro football team.  Is that sad?  I dunno, maybe less sad than not being able to admit it and admittance is the first step. 

With that being said, the Steelers are a really good team, especially with the long-haired crazy man back in the secondary.  The Steelers won the Super Bowl last year and this just in…..they are still REALLY good.  Their offensive line is coming together and with Rashard Mendenhall running the ball now, they have a running game.  Point of fact, they are probably going to go to playoffs and with Indy and New England; they are the favorite to win it all.

Now, Denver, they are still going through a learning phase.  Our offensive line is changing from a zone blocking scheme to a power blocking scheme.  Some players are struggling with this, namely, Ben Hamilton.  

Ben has started every game he’s been healthy for.  He’s a great zone blocker, but he was getting OWNED when he tried to man up with some of the bigger players in the game.  So, this week, coach McD replaced him with Russ Hochstein.  Now Russ is an old New England Patriot and knows this offense well, plus he’s 15 pounds heavier.  So, goodbye Ben, we knew you well, you were a great zone blocker for us, but with this new offense, you just don’t fit anymore.  Is this going to put us over the top?  No, but we are still a good team (not great) and will continue to get better.

Which brings me to next point - I was hacking on Orton Monday night, he was TERRIBLE, he can’t throw a pass over 15 yards…..that being said, I watched Jay Cutler on Thursday night. 

Sweet fanciful Moses, THAT was the reason Coach McD let him go.  5 INTs Jay, FIVE???? 

Jay is a great QB from either side of the 20’s, but once Jay enters the fabled red zone, Jay turns in to this man.  Jay may have all the tools, but there are some important things he is missing, football smarts and the ability to realize throwing the ball away is more important than trying to squeeze in an impossible throw between 5 defenders. 

Jay is who he is, and Frank Schaub, the beat writer from the Colorado Springs Gazette still thinks he’s the “bees knees”.  He and I have had a few back and forth about Jay and if he really is an elite QB.  Frank thinks that Jay will get better, he’s only 26.  My point is, you are who you are in your career.  He hasn’t had a winning record in football since his senior year of High School. 

So after saying all of that, would I rather have Orton or Cutler???  I’d rather take a tile Chuck and get another one, but at this point, since there is no other option, I’ll stick with Cutler.

On to the game at hand, the Denver Broncos take on the Washington Redskins on Sunday, November 15, 2009.  The Redskins are 2-6 and in a total free fall, but they are actually pretty solid defensively.  Denver is playing them at home too.  It’s never easy to win on the road, but with the fans turning against this team and the owner, maybe that home field advantage won’t be as great. 

Our defense is good enough to shut out this pathetic Redskins offense.  The ‘Skins are going to be without Clinton Portis, POSSIBLY his backup Ladell Betts and Chris Cooley.  Those are their main offensive weapons, plain and simple. 

Their offense is ugly, the problem is, the past few games, so is Denver’s.  Denver has scored a total of 10 points of offense in the past 2 games.  Again, the Redskins defense isn’t too bad at all.  Albert Haynesworth in the middle is going to give our team some trouble (a HUGE reason Ben Hamilton was benched). 

This isn’t the usual breakdown, but this game doesn’t excite me.  I know it’s the NFL and the old cliché of anyone can beat anyone on any given week, but the simple fact is, good teams beat bad teams in crunch time.  With half of the season gone now, it is crunch time.  The ‘Skins aren’t good and Denver has an appearance of a possible playoff team.  Denver plays San Diego next week and we MUST win this week, especially with a 2 game losing streak. 

So Denver needs to be all over the ‘Skins like a fat kid on cake.  Our defense can hold them to less than 10 points and our offense is just good enough, with the help of some turnovers, to gimp this one out on the road.  I say Denver wins 17-10. 

Next week is the test, the stinking HATED Chargers and that (insert expletive here) Phillip Rivers comes to town, so get ready Bronco fans, bring the hate often and early.

Welcome to the first installment of the Denver Bronco game previews.  First, let me introduce myself, I am a lifelong Bronco fan, so for me to try and be objective is simply not going to happen. If you are expecting some sort of “real” objective preview, stop reading now.  No, seriously, stop reading, because I’m only going to anger you if you do not like the Broncos. 

Seriously though, the Broncos are my obsession, when I watch them, Animotion starts playing in my head.  I started watching them when I was 7 years of age and that was B.E.  Think about it dear reader, B.E., if you have ever watching the Broncos from 1983 till 1998, you’ll know who I’m talking about.  I rooted for Craig Morton for crying out loud.  So with that being said, read on if you dare….enter the mind of a Bronco fan, don’t be scared, it’s ok, I’ll try not to hurt you.

The Denver Broncos play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, November 9, 2009 on Monday Night Football.  The Broncos enter this tilt with a record of 6-1 and the Steelers are 5-2 and coming off of a bye week.  Currently the Steelers are a 3.5 favorite over the Broncos, IN DENVER. 

Ok, let’s first talk about that. 

The Broncos did just lose their last game 30-7 to the Baltimore Ravens, but if anyone watched that game, the 1985 Bears would have had a hard time beating that team that day.  The Ravens were like O.J. spying Nicole talking to a waiter at his old house, full of rage and ready to kill.  Not many teams would’ve beaten them that day. 

Combined, the win loss record of the teams Denver has beaten is 22-22 - not bad at all - so to say they have played a weak schedule is ludicrous.  *point of fact, undefeated Indy’s win loss record of teams they have beaten is 17-33*  So to those naysayers that believe Denver hasn’t played anyone, they can all go jump off a cliff – to put it nicely. 

So, with that being said, how is it that Denver is a 3.5 dog AT HOME???  Steelers have beaten a couple of nice teams, the Vikings and ummm, yeah that’s it, the Vikings are the ONLY team the Steelers have beaten with a winning record.  Not to compare wins and losses, but when the other teams you have beaten are the Titans, Chargers, Lions and Browns, HOW in the H-E double hockey sticks is Denver a 3.5 underdog at home?  Is it because the mighty Steel Curtain won the superbowl….last year? 

To quote the disaffected youth….WHATEVER. 

Denver is a good team, they have proved it this year.  No team is going to go undefeated, so to say that last week’s 30-7 loss showed who this team really is…they need to get a part in this movie.  Do I think we are a superbowl team?  I wear orange colored sunglasses, but I’m not crazy. 

We are good enough to defend our turf at home.  Denver will prove that on Monday night.

Denver offense vs. Pittsburgh defense

Statistically speaking, Denver is 14^th in the NFL on offense.  Not great, but not bad either.  In contrast, Pitt’s D is 8^th in the NFL.  Breaking it down further, Pitt is 16^th in the NFL vs. the Pass and Denver is 16^th in pass efficiency. 

So who has the edge? 

Neither - if you look at stats - but I think Brandon Marshall against any of the Pittsburgh secondary members is a distinct advantage for the men in blue and orange.  Sure Troy Polamalu is a complete stud, but I don’t think he can cover Marshall one on one.  Pittsburgh is going to have to roll Polamalu over on to Brandon’s side, so if there was a time for Tony Scheffler or Eddie Royal to show up, the time is now. 

Especially Eddie - I don’t know what happened to him, if it’s the new offense or what, but Eddie is not Eddie this year.  Royal had over 90 catches last year, this year he is on pace for over 30 catches.  If Eddie can get on track, Denver can be a force on offense. 

The real problem is the Pittsburgh pass rush.  Anytime you are plugging the middle with Casey Hampton and bringing James Farrior and James Harrison on the outside is the real issue.  Well, that and Dick Lebeau, since he is the master of disguising blitzing.  The offensive line is going to have to have a HUGE game this week, especially after last week’s debacle.  Ryan Harris is also out for Denver this week with a bum toe.  Tyler Polumbus is going to take over for him this week and he will have his hands full. 

I expect a lot of screens (as usual) to try and offset this blitz and get the ball out of Kyle Orton’s hands fast so the vaunted Steeler pass rush won’t decapitate ole Neck Beard.  Ben Hamilton has to have a better game this week as well, last week was the worst I have seen Ben play in a long, long time. 

Basically, it boils down to this, if we can give Orton some time, I believe Denver can find some holes in the Pittsburgh secondary.  That is easier said than done obviously, since Pittsburgh is an animal on the pass rushing scene. 

Of course, you could always say, why doesn’t Denver just run?  Well, that might be easier said than done, after all, Denver is 11^th in rushing and Pittsburgh is #1 against the run, only giving up 76.6 yards a game.  Sure, Denver is going to have to run, but running alone isn’t going to do it for this game. 

Knowshon Moreno CANNOT fumble this game. Turnovers are going to be a huge key (and water is wet, duh) in this game and we cannot afford any rookie mistakes.  If Denver can get 100 yards rushing this game, we will win, mark it down…not backing down from that statement.  Of course, I don’t see that happening.  I’m somewhat a realist, I mean somewhat; I even predicted Denver would lose last week.  Me - with the sunglasses of orange. 

Anyway, I say the Steelers have the slight advantage here, just because Denver’s O line played so horribly last week.  If they don’t let Neck Beard Orton get killed, we might be able to break a few big plays on them.

 Pittsburgh offense vs. Denver defense

You think of Denver, you usually don’t think of defense, at least in the last four years you don’t.  This year is a different story. 

With Mike Nolan calling the shots and only two starters coming back from last year’s defense, Denver is for real on the defensive side of the ball.  Pittsburgh is solid on offense conversely, they are ranked 6^th in total offense this year and Denver is #1 on defense overall, thus far. 

I don’t think there is any need to bore you all with the grimey details, it’s like this - Pittsburgh isn’t a running team anymore. Sure, Rashard Mendenhall has had some good games since becoming a starter, but it wasn’t exactly against all star teams.  He has only broken 100 yards once against an anemic San Diego Charger defense. 

It’s all about Big Ben and stopping him.  What concerns me is last week. Joe Flacco is a strong, big quarterback who moves just enough not to get sacked and Denver’s defensive linemen and linebackers couldn’t seem to hold on to him.  There were many opportunities to bring Flacco down, but he slipped away.  Denver HAS to convert those sacks this week. 

Big Ben is so big and strong, you can’t just arm tackle the beast, you actually have to wrap him up and make sure he goes down.  If Denver can get to Ben and disrupt him, Denver is going to win this game, no doubt about it.  If Ben gets away and manages to evade the sacks and passes for a lot of yards, Denver is going to lose. 

Also, today November 6, 2009, the Broncos signed 35 year old cornerback Ty Law.  With this move, the top five Bronco defensive backs are an average age of 32.6 years.  WOW.  I mean, I’m a little older than that, but I also don’t play football for a profession.  Either the Broncos aren’t very happy with Alphonso Smith’s progression as a rookie (remember, the Broncos gave up a first round pick for this dude, hopefully he’s not a bust) or Ty Law has found the fountain of youth.   Does this acquisition make Denver better on defense, who knows…. Can it hurt?  Doubt it.  But does it make us that much better?  Doubt it.  I call it a wash, at least he won’t get lost like Alphonso looks out there.

I’m not blowing anyone’s minds with this analysis, I realize that, but it’s pretty simple, if Denver can slow down Big Ben, Denver wins….Elvis Dumervil, I’m talking to you. We need to hear the crowd say DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM about 3 times.  It will probably help that Denver is playing at home also. I mean, Denver was getting MAULED by the Raven’s offensive line last week, but rarely were they called for the holding call and a little home cooking should help remedy that. 

Advantage, Denver I suppose, although neither team is that much more dominant than the other.

 Special Teams vs Special Teams

I’d say with Eddie Royal returning punts and if Matt Prater has his head screwed on straight, Denver has the advantage here.  Jeff Reed is too busy getting in trouble with the police lately, anyway.  Besides, look at his picture, tell me he doesn’t look like a gigantic D.B.???  The Steelers should lose just on how Jeff Reed looks.  I’m surprised he doesn’t wear a shirt that talks about his being a F.B.I. agent. 

Advantage Denver.

Based upon the intangibles of coming off a humiliating defeat on the road and playing at home, plus what was talked about above, I think the boys in blue and orange can squeak out another close game, 24-20. 

Mark it down, because I’m rarely wrong…until next time, keep it orange!

What would most fans expect from one of the highest paid coaches in all of college football, to go long with several highly paid assistants.   Now even though I have been on both sides as a fan, and a coach.  I will say I have never experienced the luxury that these coaches have experienced.   However, I will say that I as a fan I would expect the best, just like those fans expected of me when I was a coach.  This brings to question the staff at the University of Oklahoma.

For the past several years it just doesn’t seem like Oklahoma has had the same fire in their belly as they did several years ago.   I will tell you this, and that is it all starts with the coaches.  As a coach you are looked up to by your players, just like a son looks up to his father.   If you has a coach don’t have that attitude or fire, then it will carry over to the players.  

Now, it is ok to be cocky, but you need to make sure you have the attitude that shows it.   You need to make sure everyone knows you’re the best, and that show it on the field.  It doesn’t do any good to be cocky, and just think someone is going to lie down for you because of whom you are.   You need to show them, not just tell them.   From what I have seen lately, the Sooners have been acting extremely cocky, but they just don’t show it on the field.  

There doesn’t seem to be any fire or passion inside of them.  

I know as a former coach, I always expected the best out of my players, and if they didn’t perform then they didn’t play.  Some would say that I was a little too firey at times.

Some key observations that I have noticed while watching Oklahoma is that there doesn’t seem to be any fire from the sidelines.  In a sense no one is being held accountable.  This starts with the coaches and goes down to the players.  

One of the keys to winning is to always know when it is time for a change.  Just like a business, there is always a need for a change, because as with time things progress as well.   Just think about the evolution of computers over the past 10 years, where we have gone from 133 mhz processors to 4 plus ghz computers.  The same thing can be said in football, where if you continue to run the same stuff over and over again, you will end up being passed up by the rest of college football.

On the offense there has been plenty of changes for the University of Oklahoma, but we have also seen times where they regress and tend to become way to conservative.  Take for example the no huddle offense that OU runs, where they don’t have a huddle, but yet they lineup at the line of scrimmage and wait for the play to be called.  In essence, the only thing it does is limit the defense from substituting players.  However, Oklahoma continues to run the same plays over and over again, so it isn’t that hard to prepare for.   They have been a lot better of an offense when they hurry up, which keeps the defense off balance.  

I know when I watched OU play this weekend, I was utterly shocked to see Kevin Wilson call several draw plays on 3^rdand long plays and to make matters worse, they were telegraphed by the handoff from Landry Jones to the tailback.   From what I have seen from Wilson, he seems to be ultra conservative in his play calling, especially in the bigger games.   He seems to start out strong, but once they get a lead, he is playing more to conserve the lead, instead of building on it.  

To go along with this, this seems to be the most undisciplined team that I have ever seen play the game.  I have never seen a more ill prepared team than this Oklahoma team, which is extremely sad considering the amount of talent they have on their team.  The offensive line has seemed to regress with James Patton at the helm, and considering the talent that he has had to work with that is pretty amazing.  Patton turned 2 future 1^stround picks in Robinson and Loadholt to 5^th and 2^nd rounders.   The same will be said of once top ten potential draft choice in Trent Williams as he continues play poorly.   Between missed assignments, holding, illegal procedures, and personal fouls I would really like to know what Mr. Patton is teaching these kids. 

You can also look at the fact that he continues to change up his offensive line as well.  Ironically, they start the game with the 3^rdstringer at OG in their biggest game of the season to date.   In regards to the wr coach, Jay Norvell, there is obviously a reason why he isn’t coaching in the pros anymore.   This wr corp seems to have major issue with the dropsies, and it has become a habit of the Oklahoma wr’s since his tenure began.   I am also shocked that they one guy that has dropped over 10 passes to start the year off is still seeing playing time over some of the other players.

In regards to the defense, Oklahoma has been running the same cover 2 scheme over the past 10 years with little to no adjustment at all.   This just makes it that much easier to game plan against Oklahoma.   The same issue with the over middle defense still plagues them today.  As Oklahoma continues to try and cover the crossing patterns, drags ran by the wide receivers, along with the Tight ends with a linebacker.   In most cases it’s usually the Mike, and especially this year with Ryan Reynolds it is becoming prevalent with the slowness of Reynolds at the helm.  This goes along with the ineptness of the other linebacker that rarely seem to be in position or even notice the receiver coming across the middle.  

One of the big issues is that they continue to play their defensive backs or in that case even the linebackers close enough to the line of scrimmage to be able to jam the receivers.   Also, for the past several years, I have not seen a safety understand concept of the cover 2 and covering the deep quarter or half.   Besides this, our corners still don’t how to watch the wr and their moves, as they are continuously beaten on a double move. 

Normally, you would see a substitution when a noticeable pass or run down was coming up, however with Venables at the helm, they continue to run the base 4-3 with same personnel, instead of making the necessary change.   This is part of the reason why Oklahoma is almost dead last at given up 3^rddown conversions on defense.   Other issues is plain and simple the lack of discipline and mental issues that have plagued the Sooners with Venables as defensive coordinator.   Whether it be the DT’s not able to get penetration, the Linebackers forgetting their gap assignments and running into the Dline or the opposing teams Oline, or the corners and safeties not understanding their assignments in a Cover 2 scheme. 

Either it boils down to the OU cover 2 scheme that is old and outdated, or the players just don’t grasp the concept of the cover 2.   Now there are various versions of the Cover 2, and for one is the one ran by Bud Foster at Va Tech, but as with most everyone else there are adjustments being made to go along with the times except at Oklahoma.

This boils down to the egos of the Sooner coaches thinking that they are some sort of messiah of college football, instead of actual trying to instill some heart and soul into our players.  Something that makes you has a player want to go out there to fight for it.   If you as a coach don’t show that same heart and soul and fire, then it is easy to see why the players just don’t perform to a level of excellence to be able to carry around the crystal ball.   As the head coach you need to be willing to make changes from time to time, and you will always need to make adjustments in a game.  

In today’s college football you just can’t sit back and think things will be handed to you, you have to go out there and perform to get the job done.   If the coaches don’t provide the leadership for the players to follow, then the players won’t peform.   The coaches need to realize that the same thing that worked 10 years ago will most likely not work today.  Whether it involves Mr. Stoops letting go of some of his coaches or finding the same passion when he started at Oklahoma things need to be changed before they start to get worse. 

Until then Oklahoma will continue to be known as Choklahoma.

Heading into week 4,  I have still not had a break out week.  Though I still hold a 2 win advantage over the Guest Predictors it is still to close for comfort

Missouri -7 vs Nevada- This one is a little odd as well, as Missouri should easily handle the overmatched Wolfpack.  It’s clear that the Wolfpack isn’t has high powered as they used to be in the past via the air, which doesn’t bode well if there are any hopes of upset over the Tigers. 

Jack Simms- Missouri

Guest Predictor Paul- Missouri

 Iowa State -10 Army- Let’s face it this just seems to be to big of a point spread to give to Iowa State.  Their 2 wins have been against North Dakota and Kent State.  Now sure Army isn’t a world beater but they are a little better team than those two.   This should be a close game, with either team having a chance for victory.

Jack Simms- Army

Guest Predictor Paul- Iowa State

 A&M -13.5 vs UAB- After the game against Utah State, I would think this point spread was a little high.  However UAB doesn’t really have much of anything.  Their defense is extremely poor with giving up close 500 yards of total offense on avg., while their offense claims a run/pass quarterback that isn’t that great of a passer.  This helps the Aggies as they clearly don’t have that good of a secondary.

Jack Simms- Texas A&M

Guest Predictor Paul- Texas A&M 

Kansas -12.5 vs So. Miss- This one is a little hard to judge as this will be clearly be a step up in competition for Jayhawks.  However, the Achilles heel of the eagles is their pass d, which happens to be the strength of the Jayhawks.   Now USM, doesn’t have the greatest of offenses, but it does seem to be well balanced.   With this game being at home, it should be another double digit for the Jayhawks.

Jack Simms- Kansas

Guest Predictor Paul- Kansas

 Texas -36 vs UTEP- It is clear the Longhorns have trouble covering the spread, and considering the emotional game they had last week.  I just don’t think they will win by 36.  They will most likely win by around 32 or so.

Jack Simms- UTEP

Guest Predictor Paul- Texas

Nebraska -27 vs ULL-  With the spread at 27 and the Cajuns only losing by 28 to LSU it would seem that the best bet would be to give the points.  However, the Cajuns don’t have a world beater offense, and the Huskers offense is a little better than the Tigers.  I will say it is hard to tell how a team will come off a big loss, when they could have won the game.  However, in the case with the game being Lincoln,  look for the Huskers to cover the spread again.

Jack Simms- Nebraska

Guest Predictor Paul- Nebraska

Houston vs Texas Tech (o/u-73)-  Instead of the point spread, I am taking the over at 73.  This will be a classic high scoring affair, as both teams run the same offense, and ultimately should put up some crazy passing numbers.   Both teams have an improved defense, but in the end the Red Raiders will probably face a little let down with the Cougars getting the win.

Jack Simms- Over /Houston

Guest Predictor Paul- Over/Tech

Ole Miss -3.5 vs South Carolina- This one should be a good one with the improving Gamecocks and upstart Rebels.   The Rebels have a really good offense, and the Gamecocks have been really good defense as of late.   However, the Rebels defense should stimey Garcia, and the Rebels will have too much fire power on offense.

Jack Simms- Mississippi

Guest Predictor Paul- South Carolina

Bama -19 vs Arkansas- Initially after seeing the Georgia game, and not having seen Bama it would seem this was a high point spread.  However, the Crimson Tide has a good offense which should light up the weak Razorbacks.  The defense for the Crimson Tide is also one of the best in the nation, and I just don’t think Arkansas will have the ability to go crazy on Bama like they did on the Bulldogs

Jack Simms- Alabama

Guest Predictor Paul- Arkansas

Cal -5.5 vs Oregon- This game comes down to one thing and one thing alone, the ability to stop Javhid Best.  If the Ducks can slow down the best, then they will have a fighting chance in this game.  This game is at home for the Ducks, and it is always hard to win in Eugene whether it be the play of ducks, fans, or the refs.

Jack Simms- Oregon

Guest Predictor Paul- California

Miami -2.5 vs Va Tech- Are the Hurricanes for real?  This is a legitimate Va Tech team, that is tough to play at home.  The Hokies are tremendous on D, especially against the pass.   The Hurricanes are a very well balanced Offense with Harris, James, and Cooper.  This game is going to come down to the offense, and their ability to not have turnovers.  If the Hokies can create a passing game, then they might have a chance.  If not, and they are one dimensional then it will be another big victory for the Canes.

Jack Simms- Miami

Guest Predictor Paul- Virginia Tech

OSU -14 vs Illinois- This point spread is way to low as the Buckeyes should manhandle the Fighting Illini.  The offense is virtually one dimensional with the loss of Benn, and the defense is shall we say porous at best.  Look for TP to have a break out game, even if it didn’t come against that great of a team.  

Jack Simms- Ohio State

Guest Predictor Paul- Ohio State

After a poor performance last week in going only 5 and 7.  I look to get back on track this week with a better performance to increase my lead over the Guest Predictors.  Please remember to email me at big12today@gmail.com, if you would like to be the guest predictor for the week.

Colorado(-7) vs Wyoming-  Hawkins job still appears to be safe, however will it still be safe after they play Wyoming.  This is yet another game that they should be able to win, however it is easier said than done.   I do think Colorado will finally get on track, however I don’t think they will cover the spread.  This game is played in Boulder, but for the most part all of their fans have pretty much checked out already.   This isn’t a big name school, which makes thing a lot less interesting in the eyes of the Buffs.

Jack Simms- Colorado

Guest Predictor Zeke- Colorado

Kansas(-22) vs Duke-  The Jayhawks are off to a 2-0 start and should easily extend it to 3 and 0 after this week.   The fans in Lawrence will be fired up as usual, and in the end they will be thinking about being able to beat the Blue Devils in basketball by as many as they do this weekend.

Jack Simms- Kansas

Guest Predictor Zeke- Kansas

Kansas State vs UCLA (-12)-  Snyder is treading water, as the Wildcats look to fall back into abyss.   The point spread is way too low, and UCLA will show that after dominating the Wildcats.    For all intense purposes the Wildcats, are not looking at this year for a Snyder miracle, but they instead are banking on the next coming years.

Jack Simms- UCLA

Guest Predictor Zeke- UCLA

Nebraska vs Va Tech (-4)-  The Cornhuskers will finally face their first real test of the season.  Now, it is true that they have managed to cover the spread in each of their first 2 games, however it isn’t like they actually blew away the competition, which happened to be severely overmatched.  The Hokies will present a major challenge for the Blackshirt Defense, and considering this game is in Blacksburg makes it even harder for the huskers.   There also will be a feeling of payback by the Hokies, as the Huskers derailed them last year back in Lincoln.  With the point spread being so low, look for the Hokies to cover in this conest, and hand Pelini his first loss on the year.

Jack Simms- Virginia Tech

Guest Predictor Zeke- Virginia Tech

Oklahoma State (-32) vs Rice – Just how will the cowboys respond to their upset loss to the hands of Cougars.  Either way, they may start off a little slow, but they should still pound on the Owls to alleviate some built up aggression.   With or Without Hunter the Cowboys will have more than enough fire power on hand.  This will also be a game for the defense to try and get back to the basics.

Jack Simms- Oklahoma State

Guest Predictor Zeke- Oklahoma State

Oklahoma (-16.5) vs Tulsa- This one will be interesting as this will be the first true test for the Sooners after the abysmal Bengals of Idaho State.   This will bring a lot of challenges in many different ways.  First of, the tight end passinggame, is non existent with loss of Gresham, and the wide receivers have been poor to put it mildly.  Any coach could see that their only threat is Broyles, and if they double teamed him, then that would leave just the running backs for the Sooners.  Even after the shutout win, the defense is still suspect in the middle of the field, and in the secondary.  The once mighty corner tandem has been playing d league football at best.   If they don’t get back to their old selves this might be a long afternoon for Stoops and Co.   Look for the Sooners to get back some respect, and win by 3 td’s in the end.

Jack Simms- Oklahoma

Guest Predictor Zeke- Tulsa

Baylor (-10) vs UCONN- The Bears are coming off a bye week, while Huskies are still reeling from their loss to the Tar Heels.  The Huskies will still be feeling the effects of the loss to UNC, and thus will have a long day with Mr. Griffin and company.  Bears win this by at least 2 td’s at home.

Jack Simms- Baylor

Guest Predictor Zeke- UCONN

Iowa State (-3) vs Kent State- This one should be the second win of the year for Paul Rhoads.  However, it will probably be their last one.  The Cyclones dominated the Golden Flashes last year, and should win again this year in a closer than expected game.

Jack Simms- Iowa State

Guest Predictor Zeke- Kent State

Texas A&M (-19) vs Utah State- The battle of the Aggies.  This one shouldn’t even be a contest.   Just like the New Mexico game look for A&M to destroy Utah State as it is never an easy place to play among the infamous 12^th man lore.

Jack Simms- Texas A&M

Guest Predictor Zeke- Texas A&M

Texas (-17.5) vs Texas Tech- This will be an all out war.  There is definitely no love loss between these two schools and with what happened last year look for Austin to be on fire this weekend.  Now here comes the interesting thing, Longhorns have missed the point spread the passed 2 weeks by only a few points.  Can they cover it this time?    This one just might be the game for them to cover the spread.  Look for the Longhorns to make a statement by crushing the Red Raiders.

Jack Simms- Texas

Guest Predictor Zeke- Texas Tech

Miami (-4) vs Ga Tech- Orange Bowl here we come.  This one just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for the Yellow Jackets.  The Miami D is stout as always against the run, and this is Yellow Jackets bread and butter.   Ga Tech also had controlling the passing game of Clemson last week, which doesn’t bode well considering the coming out party of Jacory Harris.

Jack Simms- Miami

Guest Predictor Zeke- Georgia Tech

Florida (-29) vs Tennessee- This will be the welcoming party to the SEC for Lane Kiffin.  After everything that Kiffin said about the Gators when he was first hired by the Vols, this should get ugly.  The Gators have the best coach in the game, and he has always had that take no prisoners attitude.  Look for the Gators to annihilate the Vols, and leave Kiffin for dead.   This should be a blow out of epic proportions.

Jack Simms- Florida

Guest Predictor Zeke- Florida

Vol. 1, Issue 1: Are you ready for some football?

August 31, 2009